Market history · Commodities ·
Israel strikes Iran and oil jumps
On 13 June 2025 Israel launched strikes on Iran. Oil prices jumped by as much as around 7% on the day as traders priced in the chance of disruption to supply from the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and stocks fell around the world, with investors moving towards safe havens such as gold.
Oil prices have repeatedly reacted to Middle East conflict in this way, and often retraced once the market judged that physical supply was not in fact interrupted.
The takeaway
A geopolitical shock moves prices first and supply later, if at all. The size of the move reflects fear as much as barrels.
Sources
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